09/02/2026
2026 CINCH PLAYOFF SERIES BUBBLE WATCH
Barrel Racing 9/1 | Tie-Down Roping 8/24
Two events. Two completely different bubble stories. ๐
Barrel Racing got more breathing room.
Tie-Down Roping turned into a dead heat.
In Barrel Racing, the No. 8 line widened dramatically in one week.
Last week, Kassie Mowry sat No. 8 with 746.13 points, just 8.13 points ahead of Andrea Bruch Busby.
Now, Megan McLeod-Sprague holds No. 8 with 822.38, while Katelyn Scott is first out at 783.51.
โก๏ธThat puts the current gap at: 38.87 points.โฌ
๏ธ
So the Barrel Racing bubble is now 30.74 points wider than it was one week ago.
McLeod-Sprague was also one of the biggest movers around the line, adding 111.25 points and jumping from 11th to 8th.
โก๏ธWhat does 38.87 points actually mean?โฌ
๏ธ
At a 500-point-base Playoff Series rodeo, 5th place pays 41.5 points and 6th pays 34.
So if the line stayed exactly where it is today, Scott would need roughly a 5th-place finish at that points tier to erase the deficit.
Please note: That is gap math and is NOT a qualification prediction because everyone around her can keep adding points too.
Meanwhile, Tie-Down Roping went the exact opposite direction.
The biggest weekly gain belonged to Riley Webb, who added 225 points, moved from 1,315 to 1,540, and jumped Joel Braden Harris for the series lead.
Closer to the Sioux Falls bubble, Ty Harris added 191.75 points and moved from 10th to 7th, while Haven Meged climbed from 8th to 5th. And all that movement crushed the gap at No. 8.
On Aug. 17, Haven Meged held eighth with 809.50, while Cole Clemons was first out at 731.25.
Gap: 78.25 points
By Aug. 24, John Douch held No. 8 with 863.25 points and Tyler Calhoun sat No. 9 with: 863.19 points.
๐จThe difference? 0.06 points. ๐ฑ Yes, you read that right โ six HUNDREDTHS of a point.๐จ
So in one week: Barrel Racing: 8th-to-9th gap
8.13 โ 38.87 and Tie-Down Roping: 8th-to-9th gap 78.25 โ 0.06
Thatโs the Bubble Watch in two numbers:
One line opened up. The other virtually disappeared.
And with Puyallup still ahead, the battle around Nos. 8โ12 matters more than ever on the road to Sioux Falls.