08/27/2026
2:51 PM 8/27 - This afternoon and evening, some slow-moving scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within and pass through the region. Although isolated thunderstorms cells are expected much of the remainder of the day, the most likely time period for these storms will be between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM. These storms will have the capability to produce damaging winds, large hailstones, extremely heavy rainfall, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and even a tornado or two. Due to the severe weather threats, the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service expects that a severe weather-related watch is forthcoming.
The greatest chance for severe weather is anticipated across portions of the forecast area north of a line extending from Baltimore City to the city of Frederick in central Frederick County while remaining east of Hagerstown in northeastern Washington County. In these areas there is a 15% to 30% chance that a thunderstorm capable of producing wind gusts of at least 60 MPH and/or hailstones of at least 1” in diameter, similar in size to quarters, passes within 25 miles of a given location. In addition, these areas also have a 2% to 5% chance of seeing a tornado pass within 25 miles of a given location.
In locations outside of these areas, meaning they are south of the line extending from Baltimore City to the city of Frederick or west of Hagerstown, the chances for severe weather are a bit lower. The chances for a thunderstorm capable of producing hailstones of at least 1” in diameter given the same distance constraints are between 5% and 15%, with the chances of a tornado being reduced below 2%. However, these areas will see similar chances of experiencing a thunderstorm capable of producing wind gusts of at least 60 MPH.
In addition to the severe weather threats, there is also a notable flash flood threat. For most areas to the north of the District of Columbia and east of the city of Frederick, the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service gives a 15% to 40% chance that rainfall totals exceed those necessary to prompt flash flooding within 25 miles of a given location. Outside of these areas, this chance is limited to between 5% and 15%.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...