23/08/2026
š EL NIĆO UPDATE ā WHATāS CHANGED?
On Friday there was a lot of coverage on the TV news about El NiƱo.
As I wrote about this just over a week ago, giving the latest position for August, I thought it was worth covering it again particularly as Iām sure quite a few of you heard it being spoken about on the news.
So, what has actually changed?
The main development is that confidence has increased that the El NiƱo currently developing in the tropical Pacific could become an exceptionally strong one. NOAAās (like the US Met Office) latest update says there is now a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El NiƱo developing through the autumn and winter of 2026/27.
The Met Office has also now commented on this event which is why the media channels have picked it up I guess. They said that the signal appearing in its forecasting models is unusually strong, with Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting, saying it could potentially become one of the most intense El NiƱo events on record.
Thatās quite a statement but there is an important word in there: potentially.
El NiƱo is still developing and its eventual strength will continue to be monitored over the coming months.
š WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE PACIFIC?
El NiƱo occurs when parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than normal.
Those warmer waters can alter large-scale atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall, drought, temperatures and storm patterns in different parts of the world.
The World Meteorological Organization says a strong El NiƱo is developing and is expected to strengthen further through August, September and October.
Its latest modelling suggested an average sea-surface temperature anomaly approaching 2.9Ā°C during this period, which would make this a particularly significant event as that's a massive increase.
š WHY DOES IT MATTER?
The effects of El NiƱo are much clearer in some parts of the world than they are here in Britain. It can increase the risk of drought in some regions while bringing heavier rainfall and flooding to others.
It also tends to give global temperatures an additional temporary boost because so much heat stored in the Pacific Ocean is released back into the atmosphere.
That is one reason why scientists are watching 2027 particularly closely.
The Met Office has said the residual heat from a strong El NiƱo could potentially make next year the warmest year in the global temperature record dating back to 1850.
š¬š§ BUT WHAT ABOUT US HERE IN THE UK?
This is the bit where I think we need to be a little careful.
You may see headlines suggesting El NiƱo means we are definitely heading for a stormy autumn, a very wet winter or even a particularly snowy winter.
It isnāt quite that simple.
El NiƱo can influence the position of the jet stream and the wider atmospheric pattern around the North Atlantic, and historically strong El NiƱo events can increase the chances of certain weather patterns developing.
But Britain is thousands of miles away from the tropical Pacific and our weather is influenced by many other factors. So I certainly wouldnāt be telling you in August that El NiƱo means Kent is going to have a severe or snowy winter!
There are some indications that the developing El NiƱo could favour a wetter and more unsettled pattern across north-west Europe at times later this year, but the detail, particularly for Kent, remains far too uncertain at this stage.
One thing that does matter however is the potential effect it will have on our food chain. Countries who will definitely be affected by this and who produce food which we here consume THAT will have a knock on effect to us leading to some food shortages and price hikes.
āļø AND THIS SUMMER?
What we can say with much more certainty is that summer 2026 has already been remarkable. England and Wales recorded their driest July on record, while southern England recorded its driest calendar month in a rainfall series going back to 1836.
We have also experienced exceptional warmth, with the Met Office saying earlier this month that the UK was increasingly likely to record its warmest summer on record for average temperature.
š SO WHERE ARE WE NOW?
The simple version is this: El NiƱo is here. It is strengthening. There is increasing confidence that it will become a very strong event, and there is a genuine possibility that it could eventually rank amongst the strongest El NiƱo if not THE strongest El NiƱo event we have ever recorded.
That makes it something well worth keeping an eye on.
What it doesn't do is give us a reliable Kent winter forecast in August.
Over the next few months we should gradually get a much better idea of just how strong this El NiƱo becomes and, importantly for us, whether the wider atmospheric patterns start giving any clearer clues about our late autumn and winter.
Iāll keep following it and, when there is something worthwhile to update you on rather than simply another dramatic headline, Iāll bring you another update.
John
Kent Weather Updates
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